Interview with Peter Stefanovic, First Edition, News24

Subjects: house prices, One Nation Peter Stefanovic: You are with First Edition on this Tuesday morning, folks. Yesterday Westpac reported a 20 per cent drop in home loan applications since the Budget, which followed a similar report last week by the NAB, which reported a 15 per cent drop. And that number would be worse if not for a surge in self‑managed super fund borrowing.

Joining us live now is the Assistant Treasurer, Dan Mulino, the Shadow Home Affairs Minister, Jonno Duniam. Good morning to you both. Dan, this is not a vote in confidence in your Budget, this is people actually running away from it.

Daniel Mulino: Well, morning Pete, and thanks for having me on. And can I just briefly say good luck with the search for your ring. My family are huge fans of Lord of the Rings, and I understand the strains of an epic quest, but good luck with that.

But look, when it comes to that particular number, what I would say is that we need to look at this in terms of the structural changes that we’re addressing. There’s been 25 years of house price growth at double the rate of income growth, and that wasn’t sustainable. It was calling out for change to some of the tax settings that were driving that.

If we go back to Westpac. What Westpac have also said, if you look at their forecast for the next financial year, is that they expect credit growth for owner‑occupiers and a slight downward shift in total credit applications for investors. And so that’s exactly consistent with what the Treasury modelling has said, in that we are going to see a housing market with all sorts of other things affecting it, but in terms of the changes that we brought through, it is going to level the playing field and see more and more people shifting from renting to owning their own home.

Stefanovic: Wait, wait, wait, wait – 75,000 is the estimate. Stefanovic: But if banks are clamming up, how does that help first‑home buyers? Well, what I’m saying is if you look at Westpac’s own forecast of the next financial year, what they’re forecasting is that credit growth will occur in the owner‑occupier sector, and that’s exactly what we’re looking for.

We’re looking for a shift in the housing market. We’re looking to level the playing field, so that people who are buying their first home aren’t going to an auction and bidding against investors who have the whole tax system standing next to them. So these are structural changes that we’re looking at, and the Treasury modelling indicates that over the medium term around 75,000 individuals and families will move to owning their own home rather than renting.

Stefanovic: Well, minus the 35,000 less stock though. No, but we have significant measures to boost supply, and so when you look at the totality of the Budget, there will be a boost in supply. There’s billions of dollars on top of all the other things we have, like the Housing Australia Future Fund.

So you’re right, I mean supply needs to be the focus. It remains our focus. We have tens of billions of dollars of programs helping to boost supply.

Stefanovic: Jonno, your response to all that? Jonno Duniam: Well, I mean the government designed the tax changes to drive down prices, but you’ve got ministers who are now running away from the effect of their tax changes at a million miles an hour, saying, ‘Oh, no, it’s all these other things and it doesn’t really matter the fact that your house, your most stable and valuable asset has dropped through the floor’.

But I honestly do not buy the thinking behind what they’re proposing here. If your value of your house goes down, you’re less likely to sell, there’s going to be less on the market. Their programs to build homes have not yielded supply.

We’re 5 years, almost 5 years into their time in government, so all of those measures together in totality, as the government keep telling us, aren’t working, yet we have seen people’s value in their home walloped by this government’s tax changes, nothing is working out as they said it would, and if the banks are telling us people aren’t applying for finance now, forget the projections, this is going to have a long‑term lasting effect, and it will not be good for Australian housing.

Stefanovic: Well, I mean, and that’s the fact, isn’t it, that there’s less selling so there has to be less buying. Dan, do you accept your tax changes are crashing the housing market as we speak? No, and as I’ve said on a number of occasions, there are many things that affect house prices; there’s interest rates, there’s changes in supply and demand, and supply is ticking up now.

We’ve seen thousands of homes, social and affordable homes, in the system now, hundreds under those opposite. We’ve also seen over the last few quarters a trend up in housing approvals, so there are good movements on all of those key measures. But what I’d say is there’s one party here which is trying to deal with structural issues that are impeding first‑home buyers from getting into the market.

House prices have grown too quickly over the last 20 years. We’ve got the Opposition and One Nation saying, ‘Let’s stick with the status quo’ when that is not a tenable position. Stefanovic: Okay.

A quick one here on Pauline Hanson, gentlemen, just before we go. So, she’s preparing to introduce a bill on exclusion orders. We’ll just bring up this post just a moment ago.

Here she is. ‘Today One Nation will push parliament to shut the door on dangerous foreign terrorist fighters trying to enter Australia. Labor can rush laws through to protect Australians from gambling. Will it move just as fast to protect Australians from terrorists?

And if Tony Burke says legal advice stops him acting, One Nation call on him to release it. Australians deserve to see it. The safety of our nation should come first.’ Jonno, I’ll start first with you this time.

Will the Coalition support her? We’ll work with them on that legislation. It is important we get it right.

We’d love to see it go off to a Senate Committee to make sure that people who know a little more than we in the Senate know, legal experts, to make sure it is robust. We want to shut the door on terrorists. We’ve been trying for years to do this.

This government have failed us as a country, so you know, if One Nation have got a bill on the table, let’s look at it, let’s get it through, if it works, and let’s protect Australians. Stefanovic: So you’re open to their bill, because talking to members of the Coalition previously, they didn’t seem that keen, they wanted to focus on their own one. So are you open to Pauline’s proposal here?

Yeah. And look, we do have our own proposals on the table, ones the government have similarly ignored. They think they’ve got it under control, they haven’t.

They’re the ones who have welcomed back the ISIS brides, they’ll bring back Dr Jihad as well. But we will work with anyone who wants to keep these terrible people out of our country. One Nation have got a bill on the table.

We’ll look at it. If it works, let’s go with it. Stefanovic: All right.

Dan, are you happy with where your policy settings are at, at the moment, on that? Well, look, from what I understand, this bill, the approach underpinning this bill is full of legal risks and holes. So let’s see the bill when it comes to the parliament.

If what the Minister has flagged is true, then I think Pauline’s going to have to go back to the drawing board. So she’s going to have to be held to account. She’s now going to have to bring policies that stack up, and I think that accountability is going to be very interesting for her.

This government relies on our foreign policy and national security experts in this area, and we’ve got a very strong system. Stefanovic: Okay. Did you say you’d lost your wedding ring at the start, Dan?

No, no, no. I was saying we were fans of Lord of the Rings. Stefanovic: Oh, right, okay. [Indistinct] so wishing you good luck.

I don’t want to create some new viral thing that my wife discovers at, you know, 9 o’clock. Stefanovic: I don’t know what I’m going to do, but anyway, I’ve got a big search on my hands. There you go.

Dan, Jonno, good to talk to you this morning, gentlemen. We’re off to a break.