Interview with Peter Stefanovic, First Edition, News24

Subjects: tobacco excise, housing Peter Stefanovic: Joining us live this morning, the Assistant Treasurer, Dan Mulino, the Shadow Home Affairs Minister, Jonno Duniam. Good morning to you both. So I’ll start with you, Dan.

First, your thoughts on this One Nation pitch. Daniel Mulino: Well, thanks for having me on, Pete, and look, fundamentally I don’t think we should be getting into some kind of excise bidding war for the benefit of big tobacco or organised crime, for that matter. What we need to do is to really focus on enforcement, and we need to ensure that the federal government and State and Territory governments work closely together to do better on that front.

There has been hundreds of millions of dollars put into enforcement over recent years, but more needs to be done. What I’d point to is some of the evidence and thoughts given by the Illegal Tobacco and E‑Cigarette Commissioner who has said that she believes that even if we dropped the excise entirely, she doesn’t think it would really dent the business model of organised crime, and she points to the fact that if you look overseas there are a number of countries where excise and prices have not increased materially but where organised crime has made a foothold, has increased its market share.

So I think at this point where we are, what we need to focus on is enforcement. Stefanovic: So you have no plans at all to cut the tobacco excise from where it is? No, at the moment our priority is to work more closely with State and Territory governments.

Queensland and South Australia have made real progress when it comes to these illegal tobacco shops. We believe there’s a lot more that can be done on that front, and we’re open to working with State and Territory governments on building on any progress that’s been made over recent years. Stefanovic: What are your thoughts on this, Jonno?

Jonno Duniam: Well, from One Nation, based on the tweet or X post that Pauline Hanson’s put up, there seems to be one part of the puzzle, Labor have a myopic view and are only looking at the other part of the puzzle. I agree, you can’t deal with it by just reducing excise, there has to be enforcement. But by the same token, you can’t deal with it just by increasing enforcement efforts.

So I think it is worth having a look at what Pauline Hanson’s talking about. I will note, and as Matt Canavan did earlier, just a few weeks ago it was a cut of 50 per cent, now it’s 75. Love to see their modelling on that and how much it will cost, et cetera, what impact on the illicit tobacco trade.

But at the end of the day what we need to do is have a proper approach to this. That does need to consider things like a reduction in excise, but also bolstering enforcement efforts so you can actually strangle this insidious illegal tobacco trade. Stefanovic: So would you – Are you open to then reducing the excise as well, Jonno?

Well, we want to see the detail of what Pauline’s putting forward, but it is something that we need to consider. If you’re serious about killing off the illegal tobacco trade, this is a lever that you need to look at pulling. We’re going through our own policy work at the moment, and we will have a proper policy, properly costed, properly modelled, properly thought out, policy to announce before the next election, but can I tell you, doing one or the other is not going to do it alone, and this is where One Nation and Labor seem to both be getting wrong.

Stefanovic: Let’s move to housing this morning, gentlemen, because the NAB has told its customers to expect a 30 per cent increase in rents as investors make up for tax changes. Dan, do you still maintain rents will only increase by $2 a week as forecast in the budget? Well, Pete, what that NAB analysis constitutes is not full modelling of the likely impacts on rents, but it’s looking at one aspect of the market, and when you look at the likely impacts of our policies over the medium term, we’re going to see a significant number of people shifting from renting to becoming owner‑occupiers, 75,000 over the next 10 years.

And so as those people shift from renting to becoming owner‑occupiers, they will leave the rental market, and that will take pressure off the rental market. And so we stick by the Treasury modelling, which is that there will be only a modest increase in rents. The NAB analysis point to a number of moving parts in the rental market, but that figure which has been extracted in some press reports is not full‑blown modelling itself.

Stefanovic: So do you still maintain only a $2 a week rise to rents? Yes, so we stick by the modelling in the budget papers, which is that there will be a modest increase in rents, that there will be around 75,000 over the medium term that will shift from renting to – Stefanovic: Yeah, minus the 35,000 available properties. Well, it is joined with policies that will boost supply by more than that.

So when you look at the budget holistically, there will be a net increase in supply as a result of all – Stefanovic: – of the budget’s policies which include some on the supply side. Stefanovic: So, if you’re looking like, you know, an average rent in some places at $600 a week, if it’s to go up, you know, 20, 30 per cent at the high end, I mean that’s an increase of about $180 a week.

So, you deny that that would take place? No. So, what I’d say is when you look at the NAB modelling, when you dig beneath what has been reported in some quarters, the NAB modelling isn’t suggesting, as I read it, that there will be a 30 per cent increase across the nation, that that’s the full effect of its modelling.

It’s looking at a range of different impacts, some of which will be on the supply and demand side, some of which will be owners of rental properties trying to recoup some of their costs. But when you look at the overall impacts, including the fact that a whole bunch of people renting are going to be moving to owner‑occupiers, I think that the impacts will be less than that.

Stefanovic: Let’s hear your thoughts on this, Jonno. I mean I still feel like it’s fairly ambitious if the government thinks there will just be a $2 increase to rent in the years ahead. Baghdad Bob would be proud, can I tell you, this explanation or justification of what’s going on here and how all of these private banks’ modelling is incorrect by a government that have some of the most disastrous housing and tax policies we’ve seen in recent history is ridiculous.

I mean NAB – a dollar more on someone’s rent is too much in a cost‑of‑living crisis, $2 is even worse, but when you’re talking across the country, different markets, different types of rental amounts being impacted in different ways, they’re all going to go up. That is not good news for renters, it’s not good news for home buyers. I mean, we’ve already heard the data around how first home buyers are being absolutely smashed by what’s been going on as a result of Labor’s tax changes.

So, I’m sorry, this is an epic fail for Australian households, and Labor seem to think it’s okay. Stefanovic: Well, yeah. Dan, back to you now.

The New South Wales budget is expecting a $200 million hole through reduced stamp duty. Is that accurate or inaccurate? Well, look, I’m not going to comment on the specifics of their budget modelling, but what I would say is the state governments – Stefanovic: They’re going to get a hit though, aren’t they – – the state governments – Stefanovic: – with fewer sales, less stamp duty? – have a number of tax sources, and stamp duty does tend to have a cyclical element, it goes up and down, and state governments have to manage that cyclicality.

For me, the important thing is we need structural reform here. We know that the housing market in Australia has not been working for young people. The status quo was broken.

We know that housing prices have jumped 400 per cent over the last 25 years, more than double or around double incomes. And so, for me, the more important thing is we need to fix the housing market, we need to make it more accessible for young people, for first home buyers, that’s the priority. I’m confident that state governments can manage movements in their stamp duty revenue.

Stefanovic: Okay, we’ve got to go to a break, but just before we go, Jonno, this one’s for you. On migration policies, you seem open to cuts now to backpackers and fruit pickers. It’s kind of news to Matt Canavan, but you’re more in line with Andrew Bragg on this one, are you, now?

Well, I did hear Matt Canavan say, ‘We’ll deal with the problems’. And that is an important point. You know, the 18,000 of the overall number of backpackers that come into this country are not the problem when it comes to the NOM.

We have to have an immigration system that caters to our need, and we should always make sure that our farmers, our horticulturalists, our hospitality industry have the workers they need. They are often working holiday makers, so those industries don’t need to worry that we’re not going to rule in, rule out, and make sure that there are certain things protected when we need to have a proper look at this.

We will do the right thing and make sure people, industries like those I mentioned, have the workers they need. Stefanovic: When’s Tony Burke going to finalise his numbers, Dan, or is there still some consternation behind the scenes? Look, there’s good work going on on that policy front, and there will be announcements soon.

But look, I’ve got my first Press Club address tomorrow, Pete, so I’ll be able to talk to you at our next discussion around superannuation protection for consumers. Stefanovic: Right. There you go.

Dan, Jonno, appreciate that. Thank you. We’ll talk to you next week.