QUESTIONS WITHOUT NOTICE
Dr CHALMERS (Rankin—Treasurer) (14:39): A big thank you to the member for Holt for the question and also for the outstanding work that she does in her local community and in this place. It is the case that the global economy is increasingly uncertain. We've seen more evidence of that just in the last few days.
The Brent oil price is up around $109 per barrel now; that's up 55 per cent higher since the war in Iran started. We can see how markets are worried about the impact of this and of inflation by looking at how they're pricing in, around the world, interest rate hikes and longer-term bond yields. If you look at the markets around the world, they are now pricing in three interest rate hikes in the US, four in Canada and the UK and another three in Europe.
The US Federal Reserve will meet early tomorrow Australian time, and we'll be watching that closely just like everybody else. Higher interest rates and higher inflation globally are pushing up borrowing costs right around the world. That is a source of concern to us and to other countries.
Yesterday, the US 10-year yield reached its highest rate since 2007. Since the conflict started, the 10-year yield is up 105 basis points in the US, 115 in the UK, 80 in Canada, 90 in Germany and around 75 here in Australia. In the face of so much global volatility, responsible economic management is as important as it has ever been.
The good news is that, because of our responsible economic management, we've got much lower gross debt to GDP than every single major advanced economy. We have one of the three strongest budgets in the G20, according to the IMF. Australia is one of only nine countries with a AAA sovereign credit rating from all three major ratings agencies, reaffirmed by two of them in the last few weeks.
S&P said that 'Australia's fiscal performance is sound' and 'Australia has modest public debt by international standards'. Moody's said that 'debt ratios at the Commonwealth level remain low' and the government's fiscal strategy is 'supported by expenditure reforms and a record of conservative budgeting'. In contrast, those opposite have already racked up more than half a trillion dollars in unfunded commitments, $110 billion or so over the forward estimates on their own.
Sensible people know that developments in the Middle East— Mr Chester: You are so unlucky! The SPEAKER: The Leader of the Nationals will cease interjecting or be warned. Dr CHALMERS: are pushing up inflation and weighing on growth and weighing on markets around the world.
Those opposite want to pretend that government spending is the primary determinant of inflation around the world right now. Well, by their own logic, their own half a trillion dollars in higher deficits and more debt would push up inflation and push up interest rates. Our responsible economic management is helping to shield Australians from intense global economic uncertainty.